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Asian Institute Of Medicine Science And Technology

Byline: Cynthia L. Webb

The sluggish technology market is showing some glimmers of hope these days, but the consensus among top tech executives and industry analysts suggests that the slump is not over yet.

Laptop computers and wireless (WiFi) networks are helping to boost the sector, as are brisk PC sales. So are recent remarks from technology heavies including Dell and Intel , indicating that sales -- and indirectly some tech spending -- are on the upswing.

Intel on Friday upped its revenue forecast for its third quarter. "It's a very positive sign for what we see as the beginnings of a broad-based recovery," Eric Rothdeutsch , senior vice president of investment firm Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Inc ., told The Los Angeles Times. "It's highly unusual for Intel to raise guidance at this early point in the quarter." The paper noted the chipmaker, which is "traditionally conservative in its forecasts, said it was seeing jumps in almost every product category -- suggesting stronger demand for computers and gadgets." * The Los Angeles Times: Intel Forecasts Higher Sales in 3rd Quarter (Registration required)

Not everyone agrees that Intel's rosy outlook means the tech sector is doing better. In a front-page article today, The Wall Street Journal said Intel's bullish forecast and other indicators show "that the nascent turnaround in the technology sector is being fueled by U.S. consumers and buyers in Asia, not by the big U.S. corporate customers that would be needed for a broad-based recovery. ... The broad mood: Business conditions are improving significantly. Indeed, worldwide shipments of PCs rose 7.6% last quarter, the fastest pace since the downturn of 2000. But most U.S. corporations appear for now to be sticking to the sidelines, waiting for stronger economic signals before moving to upgrade their desktop computers, or making major purchases of new business software. That trend suggests the current turnaround is so far narrower than the technology boom that peaked in 2000. Companies that rely on sales to large customers -- such as Cisco Systems Inc ., Sun Microsystems Inc . and Oracle Corp . -- may be months or quarters away from a noticeable upturn in sales," the paper said. * The Wall Street Journal: Signs Point To Tech Turnaround, But So Far, It's Narrowly Based (Subscription required)

Intel said it does not see an industry-wide recovery either, despite raising its profit and revenue forecasts, Reuters noted. ITnews Australia has snippets of remarks from Intel chief executive Craig Barrett . "We are in the middle of upgrading and buying a substantial number of PCs, and we see some other examples around the world that that is happening," Barrett said. "I'd like to see a lot more before I proclaim a recovery ... I've taken the very conservative attitude that after the recovery occurs, I will proclaim it."

The stock market continues to react to the mixed signals. "U.S. stocks are seen opening lower Monday, as investors continue profit-taking amid worries that recent improved earnings are based on cost-cutting, not productivity and demand," the Associated Press said. Despite Intel's revenue forecast hike due to rising demand for computers from U.S. consumers and Asian buyers, "most corporate customers are refraining from major purchases or upgrades, suggesting that a broad-based tech-sector recovery may be months or quarters away." * iTnews Australia: Short Takes: Week of Aug. 25 * Reuters: U.S. Stocks Set To Open Lower In Quiet Trading * The Associated Press via The Kansas City Star: U.S. Stocks Seen Likely To Open Lower

Many tech analysts these days prefer to play it safe. " Ashok Kumar , an analyst at US Bancorp Piper Jaffray , said it was too early to predict recovery," The San Jose Mercury News said in an article on Saturday. "He said that Intel is taking market share from rivals like Advanced Micro Devices because of Intel's strong sales of mobile Centrino processors. He also said Intel is gaining share in chipsets. Looking at mixed-outlook comments in recent days from Dell and Hewlett-Packard , Kumar said that 'the jury is out on a broad recovery.'" * The San Jose Mercury News: Intel Chip Sales Stronger

WiFi WildFire

WiFi, which allows computers to enter the age of cordless Internet access, is experiencing a price drop as it becomes more popular, especially among small businesses. That change and its "ability to convey a large volume of digital data wirelessly over short distances have made it possible for various businesses to improve sales and profits, while better serving customers face to face," The New York Times said. "Operators of stadiums, casinos, groceries, hospitals and department stores are among those who have recognized the value of bringing wireless technology out of the storeroom and into the store." Cite that as more evidence supporting the theory of tech sector glimmers: It's Intel's Centrino chips that help power laptops for wireless access. * The New York Times: Wi-Fi Moves From Storeroom To Store (Registration required)

SoBig NotSoBig But May GetSoBigger

The Sobig.F virus wasn't as big as it could have been. The sixth version of the virus was supposed to go live on Friday with a massive attack, but the trigger program was deactivated after 20 computers that were unknowingly used as building blocks for the attack were shut down. Another version of Sobig could spawn after Sept. 10 when the current edition is supposed to self-destruct. So be on the lookout for more e-mails with the subject line "Re: Wicked screensaver" and "Thank You!" And the next version of Sobig could be more troublesome. "The culprit behind the fast-spreading Sobig.F virus is expected to try again in coming weeks to create a vast network of zombie computers to carry out Internet attacks, security experts warned on Saturday," Reuters said. "He wants to build up a (robot) net by creating zombie machines he can control," Vincent Weafer , senior director of Symantec Corp .'s Security Response Center , told the wire service. * Reuters: SoBig Virus Slows, But Aims To Build Robot Network

The Washington Post on Saturday revealed more about the source of the worm, which appeared to have been launched using the Phoenix-based EasyNews.com network. "The worm is thought to have been released originally on Usenet , a sort of Internet bulletin board, by someone who had an account at EasyNews.com, according to Michael Minor , the company's co-owner. The account was paid for with a stolen credit card number and established minutes before the virus was released on the Internet on Monday, Minor said. He added that the company is cooperating with the FBI," the article said. "The account was apparently established from a computer in British Columbia, which experts said belongs to an unwitting home user whose computer appeared to be infected by a previous version of the virus. That version let Sobig's author seize control of the computer. The virus was disguised on Usenet as a pornographic photograph in an adult news group, Minor said. People who clicked on the photo had their PC infected with the virus, which then began to e-mail itself to every address on the infected computer's e-mail address book." * The Washington Post: Experts Race To Beat Computer Worm

Security experts warn that Sobig could be a harbinger of more havoc on the Net. "Imagine what might have happened if the virus fighters hadn't cracked the code. Imagine thousands or even millions of computer infected with secret software under the control of a shadowy band of vandals and thieves," The Boston Globe said. "According to Roger Thompson , you needn't imagine it: He says it's already happened. Thompson, vice president of development for the software company PestPatrol Inc ., says that personal computers throughout America are already tainted with 'Trojan horses,' the same kind of 'malware' that SoBig.F was poised to download." * The Boston Globe: SoBig Defused, But Similar Threats Remain

The Power of Linux?

The Sobig worm and the "Blaster" worm, like many other Internet scourges, plague computers running Microsoft 's Windows operating system. A number of computer users, including The Washington Post's Rob Pegoraro , argue that troubles with e-mail viruses and worms would go away if there were not such a dependence on the Windows operating system. Pegoraro wrote in his column yesterday that "nobody with a Mac or a Linux PC has had to lose a moment of sleep over these outbreaks -- just like in earlier 'malware' epidemics. This is not a coincidence. The usual theory has been that Windows gets all the attacks because almost everybody uses it. But millions of people do use Mac OS X and Linux, a sufficiently big market for plenty of legitimate software developers -- so why do the authors of viruses and worms rarely take aim at either system?" he wrote. "Even if that changed, Windows would still be an easier target. In its default setup, Windows XP on the Internet amounts to a car parked in a bad part of town, with the doors unlocked, the key in the ignition and a Post-It note on the dashboard saying, 'Please don't steal this.'" * The Washington Post: Microsoft Windows: Insecure By Design

A number of Filter readers agreed, writing in reply to my past columns on the attack of the worms that the answer to fighting off the flood of viruses is to use Linux, Mac or a number of non-Microsoft systems. Reader Rich Morin wrote on Thursday: "We run FreeBSD and Mac OS X here; the only effect we see from these viruses is a bit more trash email. More generally, Linux, Solaris and the other Unix (and Unix-like) operating systems have been free of any direct problems from the continuing onslaught of viruses." Jenny Morgan of Milwaukee wrote: "There is a fix. There is a way to prevent it ... There is sanity in the computing world: Macintosh."

Microsoft 101

The Washington Post today writes of an emerging trend among universities, including the venerable Massachusetts Institute of Technology , of embracing Microsoft products after hefty donations by the Redmond, Wash.-based software giant. More on MIT's use of Microsoft products after a $25 million donation in 1999: "Aeronautical design classes now use Microsoft's Flight Simulator computer program. Electrical engineering and computer science professors are putting their courses online using Microsoft's PowerPoint presentation software. The university's educational computer network is being overhauled to use Microsoft's .Net architecture. Video games, hardly an MIT priority but a strong commercial interest of Microsoft's, have suddenly become a subject of scholarly inquiry," the paper said. "Similar transformations are taking place at university campuses across the nation, escalating the debate over corporate influence on academia. Such concerns about donations have been raised in fields of study as diverse as auto engineering and medicine, but Microsoft's donations are a special case. Because students are likely to keep using the technology after graduation, they help to maintain Microsoft's software industry dominance." * The Washington Post: Microsoft's Big Role on Campus

IBM's Biotech Love Affair

IBM is banking on life sciences to add more dollars to its bottom line. The New York Times writes of biophysicist Gustavo Stolovitzky , whose work "with a biologist at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota has already helped spawn a project for I.B.M. to digitize the genetic profiles in millions of the clinic's patient records. ... I.B.M., which is based in Armonk, N.Y., is pursuing those customers -- scientists, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, universities and government health departments -- with projects like the Blue Gene , a $100 million supercomputer that is being designed to handle complex biological simulations, to InsightLink, which is new software that translates paper-based research methods into a searchable online system," the paper said. "At a time when information technology sales are sluggish in areas like financial services and retail, the life-sciences segment will grow at close to a 20 percent clip over the next three years, according to analysts. Along with its competitors, I.B.M. is investing in it heavily." * The New York Times: IBM Looks To Genetics To Map A New Business (Registration required)

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